The CEE does not look to be an attractive proposition for USD-denominated investors in 1H19. Except for RON, the regional currencies offer a low risk-adjusted carry (vs USD) and are levered to EUR/USD, which we expect to struggle in the early part of next year. When measured against USD, the CEE currency segment has a high correlation exposure to EM risk (gauged by MSCI EM equity index) which, like the EUR/USD, we expect to struggle in 1H19 as the trade war rhetoric continues (i.e., US raising tariffs on Chinese goods to 25% on 1 January 2019).